Capital Update – October 11, 2019

U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, after minutes from the European Central Bank’s September meeting highlighted rifts within its policy-making committee, casting doubt on further easing and sparking a selloff in European government paper.

What are Treasurys doing?
The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +4.73% climbed 6.4 basis points to 1.649%, while the 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +3.24% was up 6.1 basis points to 2.146%. The 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, +4.14% rose 4.6 basis points to 1.520%.
The 10-year German government bond yield TMBMKDE-10Y, +14.84% surged 8 basis points to negative 0.477%, around a three-week high.

What’s driving Treasurys?
Minutes of the ECB Governing Council’s last meeting in September showed that policymakers agreed on the need for further easing, but the decision to resume monthly asset purchases — the centerpiece of its quantitative easing program — proved highly contentious.

Read: Draghi will leave Lagarde a warring ECB
Investors also monitored developments on U.S.-China trade policy after President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to meet Friday with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. His announcement boosted appetite for risky assets, such as stocks, at the expense of U.S. government paper.
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.65% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.58% came off session highs but were on course to log gains on Thursday.

Conflicting reports over the likelihood of a deal whipsawed the bond market in Asian and European trading hours. Some reports suggested lower-level talks earlier this week had made no headway on critical issues, and that the Chinese delegation’s visit was cut short. Yet Bloomberg News reported that the White House could put in place a currency pact and suspend tariff increases that are set to take effect next week.

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